Across northern skies, and sometimes much farther south, curtains of green and purple light are appearing more often, driven by a restless Sun. A professional aurora hunter explains how to read this space weather, plan ahead and give yourself a real chance of seeing the next solar storm put on a show.
Why northern lights are suddenly everywhere
January brought another burst of geomagnetic activity, lighting up the skies from Lapland to mainland Europe. Images of glowing horizons flooded social media. Many of those posting them simply got lucky: they happened to be outside at the right moment, in a dark enough place, and the clouds opened just in time.
Aurora hunter Jérôme Cantalupo, who guides groups in Lapland and runs the forecasting site Aurora-Maniacs, says this is just the beginning. We are closing in on solar maximum, the peak of the Sun’s roughly 11‑year cycle. During these busy phases, violent events on the solar surface become more frequent, and the chances of intense auroras rise sharply.
Solar storms are becoming frequent enough that people in Britain, northern Europe or parts of the northern US may see lights several times per year, if they are ready.
Being ready does not mean owning a telescope or travelling to the Arctic, though that certainly helps. It means understanding what triggers a strong display, how to track it in real time, and how to avoid the classic mistakes that make people miss an event that is literally glowing above their heads.
How a solar storm turns into northern lights
Every aurora begins at the Sun. Eruptions known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) throw vast clouds of charged particles into space. If one of these clouds happens to be aimed towards Earth, the particles can reach our planet in one to three days.
When that happens, they slam into Earth’s magnetic field and get funnelled towards the poles. High above the atmosphere, they collide with atoms and molecules. Oxygen shines mostly green, sometimes red at higher altitudes. Nitrogen can glow purple or pink. The result is the famous shimmering arcs, bands and rays that seem to move like ghostly curtains.
Green auroras mainly signal oxygen being excited at around 100 kilometres up, while rare purple fringes reveal interactions with ionised nitrogen higher in the atmosphere.
The twist is that CMEs do not all behave the same way. Their speed, direction and embedded magnetic field decide whether they just graze Earth or trigger a full geomagnetic storm. In the recent major event, the particles raced from the Sun to Earth in roughly 24 hours. That rapid arrival made longer-range forecasts almost useless.
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Forecasts: what you can and cannot plan in advance
Short-term alerts: the 25–50 minute window
Cantalupo’s site, like other advanced services, offers a short-term prediction map that estimates the chance of visible auroras over the next 25 to 50 minutes. This ultra‑short window might sound tiny, but in practice it is extremely useful.
These forecasts rely on real-time measurements from satellites monitoring the solar wind streaming towards Earth. By tracking its speed and direction, models can predict when the charged particles will crash into the upper atmosphere over specific latitudes.
For serious aurora hunters, the 30‑minute forecast is the workhorse: you refresh it often, grab your coat, and move fast when the needle jumps.
The trade‑off is that you must be flexible. You might end up leaving the warmth of a cabin or car several times in one evening. On good nights in Lapland, there can be activity “almost every evening”, as Cantalupo puts it, but the best bursts may last just 10 or 20 minutes.
Three‑day outlooks: useful, but handle with care
Medium‑term forecasts, stretching up to three days, give a broad sense of when conditions might be promising. They are based on observations of sunspots and active regions rotating across the solar surface, as well as CMEs detected by solar observatories.
During quiet times, these maps can help you plan a weekend trip north. During hectic periods, they can mislead. The recent fast CME was so quick and so intense that it effectively outran the model’s expectations. By the time the data showed what was coming, there were only hours left before impact.
- Use three‑day forecasts to choose which night to stay up later.
- Use 30‑minute forecasts to decide when to step outside and where to look.
- Stay ready for surprises: the biggest storms can arrive faster than expected.
Picking the right place on Earth
The single biggest mistake beginner aurora seekers make is underestimating light pollution and weather. Strong geomagnetic storms can push the auroral oval down over the UK, northern Germany or the northern United States. Yet city glare and low cloud often wash the whole thing out.
Cantalupo’s first rule is simple: get away from artificial light. Even a village streetlamp can erase faint arcs that a camera would otherwise catch on the horizon.
The ideal aurora site is dark, open, and away from city glow, with a wide view of the northern sky and clear or fast‑moving clouds.
For mid‑latitude observers, the aurora typically sits low towards the north. You want a site with a clear northern horizon, not blocked by trees, mountains or buildings. Coastal areas facing north, rural fields or hilltops can all work.
| Region | Good aurora strategy | Main obstacles |
|---|---|---|
| Scandinavia / Lapland | Stay several nights in dark areas, track forecasts hourly | Cloud cover, extreme cold |
| UK / northern Europe | Watch solar alerts, be ready to drive 30–60 minutes north or to coast | Light pollution, Atlantic weather fronts |
| Northern US / Canada | Pick dark-sky parks and lakeshores, monitor geomagnetic indices | Clouds, snowstorms |
| Lower latitudes | Wait for extreme solar storms, use cameras to catch faint glows | Skyglow, rarity of strong events |
Gear and tricks from a professional aurora hunter
You can enjoy a powerful aurora with just your eyes, wrapped in a warm jacket. But a few tools and habits turn a casual outing into a well‑prepared chase.
Smartphone or camera settings that actually work
Modern smartphones are surprisingly capable, yet they need help. Night modes and long exposures brighten the aurora but also amplify noise and blur. Cantalupo and other guides favour simple, repeatable settings and a sturdy tripod.
- Use a tripod or solid surface to keep the phone or camera still.
- Set exposure between 2 and 10 seconds, depending on aurora brightness.
- Keep ISO moderate (800–3200) to limit grainy images.
- Use the widest lens you have to capture more of the sky.
- Turn off flash and focus manually at infinity when possible.
For those with dedicated cameras, a fast wide‑angle lens (for example, f/2.8) makes a clear difference. It gathers more light, which means shorter exposures and sharper structures in the aurora curtains.
Staying comfortable during long, cold waits
Professional guides know that most failed aurora hunts come down to comfort, not physics. People give up just before the sky explodes because they are freezing or exhausted.
Aurora chasing is a patience game: dress as if you will be standing still on a frozen lake for two hours, not walking briskly.
Layering is key: thermal base layers, thick socks, insulated boots, windproof outer shell, hat and gloves you can operate a phone with. Hot drinks and hand warmers help. In vehicles, keep the engine off when parked to avoid headlights and foggy windows ruining your dark adaptation.
Understanding the jargon: KP, Bz and geomagnetic storms
Aurora forecasts often throw cryptic letters and numbers at you. A few are worth decoding. The Kp index runs from 0 to 9 and measures global geomagnetic activity. Roughly speaking, Kp 4–5 can bring auroras to Scotland and northern US states, Kp 6–7 can reach England, central Europe and more of the contiguous US, while Kp 8–9 can push them even farther south.
Another key parameter is Bz, part of the solar wind’s magnetic field. When Bz turns strongly southward, it couples more efficiently with Earth’s northward field, letting more energy pour in. Long periods of negative Bz often mean brighter and more widespread auroras.
Watching Kp alone can be misleading; experienced hunters track Bz, solar wind speed and local magnetometer readings to judge if a storm is truly building.
These numbers do not guarantee a display above your house. Clouds, haze and city lights still win every time. Yet they help you judge when it is worth losing sleep and when to stay on the sofa.
What future solar storms could bring
The coming years, with the Sun near its peak activity, carry both promise and risk. On one hand, more frequent CMEs mean more chances for skywatchers across mid‑latitudes to catch auroras, perhaps several times a year. On the other hand, very large storms can affect satellite operations, radio communications and power grids.
Space weather agencies now run constant simulations of CME impacts, aiming to give grid operators and airlines hours of warning. For aurora hunters, those same models offer a heads‑up that a serious show may be brewing for the following night.
One realistic scenario: a strong CME erupts early on a Friday, reaches Earth on Saturday evening, and triggers a Kp 7 storm. People in northern France, southern UK, or the northern US could then see a faint green arc low in the north evolving into bright curtains overhead. Those checking their phones only once or twice that evening might never realise what passed by.
For families, aurora chasing can become a winter ritual tied to broader activities: snowshoe walks, late‑night photography sessions, or simply stargazing and learning constellations during quiet periods between bursts. Even when the lights fail to show, the night sky itself becomes part of the experience.
As Cantalupo’s work in Lapland illustrates, you do not control space weather; you only control your readiness. With a rough grasp of solar storms, a habit of checking short‑term forecasts, and a plan to escape the city lights, those enigmatic green and purple waves turn from a rare miracle into something you stand a fighting chance of seeing the next time the Sun flares our way.