A new sci-fi thriller starring Chris Pratt is set to shake up the weekend box office, going head-to-head with Avatar: Fire and Ash, the latest epic from James Cameron that has dominated theaters for weeks.
Opening Weekend Projections
Mercy is tracking an opening of $10 million to $13 million across roughly 3,400 theaters in North America. At the same time, Avatar: Fire and Ash is projected to earn $8 million to $10 million in its sixth weekend, after holding the No. 1 domestic spot for five consecutive frames.
Amazon MGM’s First Major Release of the Year
Mercy marks the first wide theatrical release of 2026 for Amazon MGM Studios, which plans to significantly expand its cinema lineup over the next year. Upcoming projects include the Ryan Gosling-led Project Hail Mary, the toy-based Masters of the Universe, and the Colleen Hoover adaptation Verity.
With a PG-13 rating and a $60 million production budget (excluding global marketing), Mercy is directed by Timur Bekmambetov. The story unfolds in the near future, where a detective portrayed by Pratt stands trial for the alleged murder of his wife. His fate is decided by an advanced artificial-intelligence judge played by Rebecca Ferguson.
Avatar’s Enduring Box Office Strength
The Avatar franchise is famous for long theatrical runs. The first two installments each remained at No. 1 for seven straight weekends, setting a high bar for Fire and Ash. So far, the third film has accumulated $368 million domestically and $1.32 billion worldwide, making it the second-highest-grossing film of 2025 behind Zootopia 2.
Despite its massive totals, Avatar: Fire and Ash still trails the franchise’s earlier entries—2009’s Avatar and 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water—which earned $2.9 billion and $2.3 billion globally, respectively.
A Slower Month, but Stronger Momentum
January is typically a quieter period for moviegoing. However, according to Comscore, the box office is currently running 18% ahead of last year’s pace.
Theater owners are eager for this momentum to continue, especially with major titles on the horizon such as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, The Odyssey from Christopher Nolan, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day.
Industry analyst David A. Gross of Franchise Entertainment Research notes that 2026 began strongly due to carryover business from holiday releases. Still, he cautions that as schools resume and seasonal titles fade, the industry must avoid a post-holiday slowdown.
The arrival of Mercy adds fresh competition to a box office still led by Avatar: Fire and Ash. While Cameron’s blockbuster continues to show impressive endurance, Amazon MGM’s sci-fi thriller represents a meaningful test of audience appetite for new releases in a traditionally slower month. How well Mercy performs could shape early-year confidence for studios and exhibitors alike.