Fresh research tracking nearly 400 million people across 450 regions shows a continent quietly splitting between those adding months of life each year and those stalling. Behind national averages, a far sharper and more unsettling map is emerging.
Two Europes of life expectancy
For more than a decade, the story of longevity in western Europe sounded reassuring. From the early 1990s to around 2005, men and women were gaining life expectancy almost everywhere, and poorer regions were catching up fast with the healthiest areas.
Then the momentum changed. A major study led by France’s National Institute for Demographic Studies (Ined), the German Federal Institute for Population Research and the CNRS, published in the journal Nature Communications, followed 450 regions in 13 western European countries between 1992 and 2019. It reveals a Europe now moving on two different tracks.
After 2005, life expectancy kept climbing in western Europe, but the rise slowed sharply and gaps between regions began widening again.
In the period 1992–2005, women were gaining around 2.5 months of life per year on average, and men around 3.5 months. Lagging regions were even doing slightly better, sometimes gaining up to four months a year for men, which helped reduce regional disparities.
By 2018–2019, the picture had changed. Women were gaining closer to just one month a year, men about two months. Regions that were already disadvantaged saw their progress fall by roughly 40% compared with the earlier period. The 2008 financial crisis appears to have amplified this divide, concentrating secure jobs, high incomes and health infrastructure in a handful of prosperous urban and metropolitan areas.
Where Europeans actually live the longest
The study pinpoints clear front-runners in longevity. The longest lives today are typically found not at the national level but in specific prosperous regions clustered around a few hotspots.
Longevity leaders: from Milan to Geneva
Regions that lead the pack stretch mainly across northern Italy, Switzerland and several Spanish provinces. These areas, already ahead in the 1990s, have kept extending their advantage.
France also has clear “pioneer” regions. In 2019, areas such as Paris, Hauts-de-Seine and Yvelines, along with parts of western France around Anjou and departments near the Swiss border, recorded among the highest life expectancies in the country:
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- Men: close to 83 years
- Women: around 87 years
Crucially, these regions keep gaining:
Top-performing areas still add about 2.5 months of life per year for men and 1.5 months for women, with no clear biological ceiling in sight.
This suggests that medical progress, healthier lifestyles and strong local economies continue to translate into longer lives – at least for those living in the right postcode.
The regions stuck in the slow lane
At the other end of the spectrum, several parts of Europe appear stuck. Progress has either nearly flatlined or, in some age groups, reversed.
The study highlights:
- Eastern Germany
- Wallonia in Belgium
- Several regions of the United Kingdom
- Hauts-de-France in northern France, especially for men
In many of these areas, yearly gains in life expectancy are now close to zero. On the map drawn by the researchers, Europe almost looks split into two blocs: one where people continue adding months of life, and another where the curve has nearly stopped climbing.
The weak link: deaths between 55 and 74
To understand why this divergence appeared, the researchers dug deeper into the ages at which people die. The answer is not where you might expect.
Infant mortality is already very low across western Europe and keeps improving slowly. Mortality after 75 is also still declining in most regions thanks to better treatment of cardiovascular disease, cancers and chronic conditions.
The real fracture emerges between ages 55 and 74 – the so-called “early old age” where mortality had been dropping fast in the 1990s but is now stagnating or even rising in many regions.
Among women, mortality in this age band is increasing in several departments along the French Mediterranean coast and in large parts of Germany. Men in northern France remain particularly exposed. Similar patterns appear in some UK regions with high levels of deprivation.
Researchers point the finger at a combination of long-term behaviours and economic shocks:
- Smoking rates, especially among women in some countries
- Alcohol consumption and binge-drinking cultures
- Poor diet, obesity and physical inactivity
- Regional economic decline since the 2008 crisis
How your postcode shapes your lifespan
Beneath these trends lies a broader question: how much does where you live shape how long you live?
| Type of region | Economic profile | Trend in life expectancy (recent years) |
|---|---|---|
| Pioneer regions | High incomes, strong services, dense healthcare | Still gaining 1.5–2.5 months of life per year |
| Intermediate regions | Mixed economies, mid-level access to care | Slow but positive gains |
| Lagging regions | Industrial decline, high unemployment, fewer doctors | Gains close to zero, sometimes slight reversals |
National averages hide these sharp contrasts. A country can boast rising life expectancy overall while entire regions are stuck, especially outside big cities. For individuals, that means the same lifestyle can lead to different outcomes depending on the strength of local healthcare, transport, prevention campaigns and job markets.
The future of longevity in Europe depends less on pushing biological limits and more on whether lagging regions catch up with the leaders.
The study’s authors warn that, if recent trends continue, a minority of territories will keep stretching the boundaries of human longevity, while a majority will see the pace of progress slowly fade. In that scenario, your address could matter almost as much as your genes.
What could shift the trend
From medical breakthroughs to everyday access
Medical science keeps advancing: better cancer therapies, new heart medications, earlier diagnosis of chronic disease. Yet these gains do not automatically reach every region at the same speed.
Two neighbours in different regions may face very different odds if one has easy access to screening, nearby hospitals and specialists, while the other relies on overstretched services or long travel times. Uneven access can blunt the impact of national health policies.
Policies that matter include:
- Targeted funding for hospitals and GPs in underserved areas
- Local campaigns against smoking, heavy drinking and poor diet
- Early detection programmes for cancers and cardiovascular disease
- Support for mental health, especially after economic downturns
A simple scenario: two 60-year-olds, two trajectories
Imagine two women, both 60, with similar education and similar health histories. One lives near Geneva, the other in a deindustrialised town in eastern Germany or northern England.
Both might have access to universal healthcare on paper, but in practice:
- One can get a specialist appointment within weeks, the other waits months.
- One lives in a walkable area with good air quality, the other beside a busy road with limited green space.
- One shops in a neighbourhood full of fresh food options, the other in a place where cheap, ultra-processed food dominates.
Over 10–15 years, these small differences compound. The probability of dying between 55 and 74 creeps up in some regions and falls in others. That is the hidden engine behind Europe’s two-speed longevity.
Key concepts behind “two-speed” longevity
A couple of terms help make sense of this shift.
Life expectancy is a statistical measure: the average number of years a newborn could live if current death rates at each age stayed the same. It does not predict an individual future, but it exposes how a society is doing.
Premature mortality usually refers to deaths before a certain age, often 75. The worrying stagnation among 55–74-year-olds is essentially a problem of premature mortality, often preventable through changes in behaviour and better public policies.
The study suggests that narrowing regional gaps in premature mortality would likely deliver more additional years of life than any single high-tech medical breakthrough confined to already wealthy regions.
For governments and local authorities, that means long-term gains may come less from headline-grabbing innovations and more from steady work: tackling smoking and alcohol harm, improving housing and air quality, and ensuring that a person’s lifespan is not decided by the side of a border or the fate of a single local industry.