Colombia’s long-running hunt for new fighter jets has taken an unexpected turn, leaving Paris empty-handed and Stockholm celebrating.
After years of talks and a French offer priced below its rival, Bogotá has decided to buy Swedish-built Gripen jets, dealing a fresh blow to France’s ambitions in the global arms market.
Colombia walks away from Rafale at the last moment
In 2022, Colombia’s government was openly eyeing the French Rafale as one of the leading options to replace its ageing combat aircraft. Military officials praised the jet’s performance and its track record in operations from the Sahel to the Middle East.
Three years later, the picture looks very different. President Gustavo Petro’s administration has now chosen Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen instead, turning down Dassault Aviation despite a lower French price tag.
The Colombian deal, worth about €3.2 billion, slipped through France’s fingers within sight of the finish line.
According to figures cited in the negotiations, the French package for Rafale fighters was valued at roughly €2.96 billion. Yet Bogotá opted to pay slightly more and sign with Sweden’s Saab, a decision that has raised eyebrows among defence analysts and diplomats in Paris.
Inside the €3.2 billion Gripen contract
The agreement covers 16 JAS 39 Gripen aircraft destined to replace Colombia’s decades-old Israeli-built Kfir jets. Those Kfirs, first delivered more than 40 years ago, have become increasingly costly to maintain and difficult to keep airworthy.
Colombia’s choice is about more than new metal on the tarmac. It shapes the country’s defence posture for the next three decades and forges a new strategic link with Sweden, a country edging closer to NATO and keen to expand its defence exports.
Sixteen Gripens, a higher price than the French offer, and a clear political signal: Colombia is backing a new partner for its air power.
What tipped the balance toward Saab
Colombian officials have not published a full breakdown of their decision, but several factors likely weighed in:
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- Industrial offset: Saab typically offers local assembly, technology transfers and support for domestic aerospace projects.
- Operational costs: The Gripen is widely marketed as cheaper to operate per flight hour than heavier fighters like the Rafale.
- Political alignment: Working with Sweden allows Bogotá to diversify away from traditional suppliers such as the US and France.
- Training and integration: Saab highlights user-friendly avionics and flexible weapons integration tailored to customer needs.
For a middle-income country juggling tight budgets and internal security priorities, long-term costs and local industrial gains can matter more than sheer performance in combat.
Is Rafale losing its shine?
The Colombian setback arrives against a sensitive backdrop for France. Memories are still fresh of the scrapped “contract of the century” with Australia for submarines, a loss estimated at around 50 billion Australian dollars for Naval Group and its partners.
On the surface, another lost deal could look like a broader slide in French influence. Yet the Rafale’s market record tells a more nuanced story.
| Country | Rafale status | Approximate number of jets |
|---|---|---|
| France | In service | 234 |
| India | In service and on order | Over 60 confirmed |
| Other export customers | In service or on order | Over 200 combined |
Since the Rafale entered service, more than 500 aircraft have been produced or sold, making it the standout export star of France’s arms catalogue. Roughly 234 serve in the French Air and Space Force and Navy, while around 273 are destined for foreign customers.
India alone has ordered 36 Rafales for its air force and signed up for 26 naval variants in April 2025 for its aircraft carriers. Talks continue for an additional batch of up to 40 aircraft, though Delhi is known for protracted negotiations and shifting priorities.
Despite Colombia’s rejection, Rafale remains the flagship of French defence exports, both in numbers and in prestige.
French defence diplomacy under pressure
France’s disappointment goes beyond the loss of a single contract. Fighter jet sales are deeply political. They lock in long-term training, maintenance and intelligence-sharing ties. Losing Colombia means losing potential influence in Latin America, a region where France has been trying to grow its profile.
Competing suppliers, from the US to Sweden and South Korea, are now more aggressive, more flexible in financing and more willing to adapt offers to local political demands. Paris faces a tougher landscape.
What this means for Dassault Aviation
For Dassault, missing out on €3.2 billion in orders is not fatal, but it delays production visibility and may affect workload planning at some sites. The company still benefits from solid Rafale backlogs and continuing upgrades for France’s own fleet.
At the same time, each lost tender strengthens rivals. Saab gains a new reference customer in Latin America. That reference can sway other air forces looking for proof that a platform fits their climate, geography and budget.
How countries choose their fighter jets
From the outside, jet purchases can look like a simple performance contest: which aircraft flies faster, higher, or carries more weapons. In reality, defence ministries weigh a far longer list of considerations.
Common criteria include:
- Upfront purchase price and long-term operating costs
- Training needs for pilots and ground crews
- Compatibility with existing weapons and systems
- Potential for local jobs and technology transfer
- Political relationships and future security guarantees
- Financing terms and payment schedules
A slightly cheaper offer can still lose if it brings fewer local benefits or weaker diplomatic backing. Colombia’s choice of Gripen over Rafale fits that pattern, even with the higher overall price.
Key terms behind the headlines
Two concepts often surface in these deals: “offsets” and “lifecycle costs”. Both played a likely role in Bogotá’s calculations.
Offsets are side agreements that accompany a weapons sale. They can involve local assembly lines, support for domestic industry, or funding for research projects. For politicians, offsets offer a way to show voters that foreign defence contracts generate jobs locally, not just abroad.
Lifecycle costs cover everything from fuel and spare parts to training, upgrades and eventual retirement. A jet that is cheaper to run per flight hour might end up costing billions less over 30 years, even if its purchase price is higher at the start.
What could happen next
The Colombian move sends a message to other middle-income countries currently pondering new fighters, from Argentina to some Southeast Asian states. It shows that smaller suppliers like Sweden can win against bigger names if the package aligns better with political and economic needs.
For France, the setback may prompt adjustments. That could mean more generous industrial partnerships, more flexible financing, or stronger coordination between diplomacy and industry when pitching major contracts.
For Colombia, the real test will come once the Gripens arrive. Integrating new combat aircraft demands training, infrastructure upgrades and a careful phase-out of older jets. If the transition goes smoothly, Bogotá’s gamble to pay more and pick Saab will look like a calculated move rather than an expensive risk.