While most visitors at the 2025 Paris Air Show stared at fighter jets and flashy drone demos, French and Swedish officials were working on something far more strategic: a new layer of military cooperation that could redraw the naval map in the Baltic Sea and give substance to a still-fragile European defence project.
A low‑profile deal with high‑stakes implications
During the 2025 Paris Air Show at Le Bourget, the French and Swedish defence ministers agreed a joint roadmap that goes well beyond the usual declarations of intent. The plan spans drones, air defence, radar aircraft and, potentially, front-line warships.
On paper, it looks like an industrial partnership. In reality, it is about power projection in one of Europe’s most sensitive areas: the Baltic Sea, now framed by NATO allies from Denmark to Finland.
This emerging Franco‑Swedish axis links high‑end French naval design with Sweden’s frontline Baltic combat experience at a moment of deep regional tension.
Sweden has only just joined NATO and still thinks of itself as a self-reliant defence actor. France wants to be seen as a European pillar, not just a NATO contributor. Both are looking for ways to reduce dependence on US capabilities without breaking with Washington.
From missiles to radar planes: cooperation already under way
The partnership does not start from scratch. The two countries already work together on several key systems used by their armed forces.
- NH90 helicopters used by both navies and armies
- AT4 shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons produced by Saab and widely exported
- BvS10 all-terrain vehicles, ideal for Arctic and Nordic conditions
Recently, Stockholm took a further step by ordering Akeron MP precision missiles from France for its ground forces, signalling long-term trust in French land systems.
On the air side, Sweden is promoting its GlobalEye airborne early warning aircraft, built by Saab. Stockholm is buying it for itself, while Paris is seriously considering the same platform to replace its ageing E‑3F AWACS fleet, originally built on a Boeing 707 airframe.
GlobalEye offers long-range air and maritime surveillance, giving both countries a common sensor picture from the Arctic to the Mediterranean if they synchronise their fleets.
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A shared radar aircraft platform would help harmonise data, training and logistics, and create a thin but real European alternative to US and UK early warning capabilities.
The French frigate that could rock the Baltic
Where things get truly disruptive is at sea. France is quietly pitching its new generation frigate, known as the FDI or Amiral Ronarc’h class, to the Swedish Navy.
For Stockholm, which has long favoured strictly domestic shipbuilding, buying a foreign-designed combat ship would mark a break with decades of policy. The move would also reopen the question of Sweden’s own future surface fleet program.
Why Stockholm is rethinking its own ships
Sweden had instructed Saab Kockums to design five new Luleå-class corvettes to replace its stealthy but ageing Visby-class ships. These compact vessels were tailored for shallow Baltic waters and coastal defence.
Over time, Swedish naval planners asked for more range, more volume for future weapons, and much stronger protection against drones and loitering munitions. The design grew, both in size and complexity, moving towards a 120‑metre, fully multi-role combatant.
| Key Luleå programme milestones | Planned timeline |
| End of concept and definition studies | Mid‑2025 |
| Start of ship construction | Late 2026 (target) |
| Delivery of first ship | From 2030 onwards |
Costs and risk went up, schedules slipped, and the planned number of hulls dropped from five to four. That opened a window for France to suggest a “ready-now” alternative: the Ronarc’h frigate, already in production for the French Navy.
A frigate tailored for contested northern waters
The Amiral Ronarc’h class is a 122‑metre, roughly 4,000‑tonne frigate designed initially for operations in the eastern Mediterranean and the Atlantic, but with characteristics that fit Baltic needs.
It carries advanced 3D radars, KingKlip and CAPTAS‑4 sonars for anti-submarine warfare, Aster surface-to-air missiles, MU90 lightweight torpedoes, and space for unmanned aerial and surface drones.
Its key advantage lies in a fully digital architecture that allows frequent software and sensor upgrades, vital against rapidly evolving Russian tactics and drone threats.
Naval Group, the French shipbuilder, claims it can produce two FDI hulls a year at its Lorient shipyard. A Franco‑Swedish deal could see final weapons integration or some segments of construction carried out in Karlskrona, Sweden’s main naval shipbuilding hub, giving local industry a stake in the project.
Shifting influence inside Europe’s defence market
If Stockholm opts for a French-designed frigate, it will change industrial balances across northern Europe. Saab Kockums, long dominant in Swedish surface shipbuilding and a key player in Nordic defence, would have to share the stage with Naval Group.
British companies, which have partnered with Saab on several maritime programmes, could also see their position weakened as Sweden turns towards continental suppliers. For Paris, the prize is not just a contract, but a foothold in the wider Nordic security ecosystem, from Norway to Finland.
A Swedish order for Ronarc’h frigates would be the first time a major Nordic navy adopts a French surface combatant as a fleet centrepiece.
That would set a precedent for further joint designs, shared maintenance hubs and possibly common munitions stockpiles across the region.
A Baltic message to Moscow and a quiet signal to Washington
All of this unfolds against the backdrop of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and its persistent naval activity in the Baltic, often using small, hard‑to‑track units and electronic warfare to keep neighbours guessing.
More capable Swedish surface ships, backed by French sensors, missiles and data networks, would raise the cost of any Russian attempt to intimidate or probe NATO’s northern flank.
The move also sends a nuanced signal to the United States. France and Sweden are not walking away from US technology, but they are clearly trying to assemble a credible European toolkit: anti-ship missiles, air defence, submarines, frigates and early warning aircraft that do not rely entirely on American industrial supply chains.
What this means for “European defence”
For years, talk of a “European defence” policy has been long on rhetoric and short on hardware. This kind of concrete industrial tie-up shows how it may actually grow: from the bottom up, via shared platforms and interoperable fleets, rather than through grand treaties.
France brings heavy shipbuilding capacity, export experience and a long record of high-intensity naval operations. Sweden brings cutting-edge sensor technology, a specialised understanding of the Baltic, and political weight as a new NATO member bridging the Nordic region and continental Europe.
Scenarios: how the Baltic balance could shift
In a crisis scenario around 2030, if Sweden fields modern frigates with strong air and anti-submarine capabilities, operating alongside Finnish, Danish, German and Polish assets, Russia’s Baltic Fleet faces a much denser, more coordinated wall of sensors and missiles.
Joint training between French and Swedish crews could produce mixed task groups where Ronarc’h frigates share targeting data with Swedish corvettes and GlobalEye aircraft. That creates overlapping coverage against submarines, cruise missiles and drones, shrinking the room for miscalculation or covert Russian moves near undersea cables or energy infrastructure.
Key terms and risks worth watching
The phrase “airborne early warning” refers to aircraft like GlobalEye or the old E‑3F AWACS, which patrol high above the theatre, using powerful radars to detect threats hundreds of kilometres away. They are prime targets in any conflict, yet they also provide the shared picture that keeps friendly aircraft and ships from colliding or firing on each other.
Anti-submarine warfare, often mentioned in connection with Baltic and North Atlantic security, involves a mix of hull-mounted sonars, towed arrays such as CAPTAS‑4, helicopters dropping sonar buoys and torpedoes. The Baltic’s shallow, noisy waters make this particularly demanding, which is why modern sensors and data fusion matter so much.
There are risks. Delays on both sides, budget pressures in Stockholm, or political changes in Paris could slow or shrink the projects. Domestic shipyards and unions in Sweden might push back against foreign designs. Russia could react with more aggressive manoeuvres, testing the resolve of the new partnership.
On the other hand, a successful Franco‑Swedish package combining Akeron missiles, GlobalEye aircraft and Ronarc’h frigates would give Europe a concrete example of how smaller but focused cooperation can change a regional balance, one contract at a time.
Originally posted 2026-02-16 09:21:19.